- The CDC announced today the new number of Swine Flu cases; it was 1639. If this trend continues as it has been since it began on April 23, 2009, the number of cases could increase exponentially. I present here a mathematical model to estimate the total number of cases in the next few days based on what we know so far about its trend. The model is shown in the figure on the right. Based on this model, the estimated total number of cases on the following days is given below. The actual reported cases will be given in red for comparison (CDC reporting figures):
- May 9, 2009 ........... 1,876.................2,254
- May 10, 2009 ......... 2,629..................2,532
- May 11, 2009 ......... 3,683..................2,600
- May 12, 2009.......... 5,161...................3,009
- May 13, 2009.......... 7,231...................3,352
- May 14, 2009.......... 10,131.................4,298
- May 15, 2009.......... 14,195
- May 16, 2009.......... 19,889
- May 17, 2009.......... 27,867
- May 18, 2009.......... 39,046
- May 19, 2009.......... 54,709
- May 20, 2009......... 76,654
- May 21, 2009.......... 107,403
- May 22, 2009......... 150,487
- May 23, 2009......... 210,852
- May 24, 2009......... 295,432
- May 25, 2009......... 413,941
- May 26, 2009......... 579,988
- May 27, 2009......... 812,642
- May 28, 2009......... 1,138,622
- May 29, 2009......... 1,595,364
- May 30, 2009......... 2,235,322
- Nay 31, 2009 ......... 3,131,990
- June 1, 2009 ......... 4,388,343
- June 2, 2009 ......... 6,148,666
- June 3, 2009.......... 8,615,117
- June 4, 2009.......... 12,070,951
- June 5, 2009.......... 16,913,045
- June 6, 2009.......... 23,697,476
- June 7, 2009......... 33,203,388
By June 7, 2009, and based on this model, about 10% of the population in the US will be infected with the virus. As any mathematical model, however, this estimation has its own limitations; it assumes that nothing will change in the natural history of the virus and the same conditions for its spreading continue to exist until June 7. The last episode of Swine Flu infection lasted about a month. This means, the virus could infect a total of 200,000 people nationwide by that date (May 23).
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