BOTANICAL MEDICINE POSTS (BMP): May 8, 2009

Friday, May 8, 2009

Estimated Swine Flu Cases in the USA: A Warning

The CDC announced today the new number of Swine Flu cases; it was 1639. If this trend continues as it has been since it began on April 23, 2009, the number of cases could increase exponentially. I present here a mathematical model to estimate the total number of cases in the next few days based on what we know so far about its trend. The model is shown in the figure on the right. Based on this model, the estimated total number of cases on the following days is given below. The actual reported cases will be given in red for comparison (CDC reporting figures):
May 9, 2009 ........... 1,876.................2,254
May 10, 2009 ......... 2,629..................2,532
May 11, 2009 ......... 3,683..................2,600
May 12, 2009.......... 5,161...................3,009
May 13, 2009.......... 7,231...................3,352
May 14, 2009.......... 10,131.................4,298
May 15, 2009.......... 14,195
May 16, 2009.......... 19,889
May 17, 2009.......... 27,867
May 18, 2009.......... 39,046
May 19, 2009.......... 54,709
May 20, 2009......... 76,654
May 21, 2009.......... 107,403
May 22, 2009......... 150,487
May 23, 2009......... 210,852
May 24, 2009......... 295,432
May 25, 2009......... 413,941
May 26, 2009......... 579,988
May 27, 2009......... 812,642
May 28, 2009......... 1,138,622
May 29, 2009......... 1,595,364
May 30, 2009......... 2,235,322
Nay 31, 2009 ......... 3,131,990
June 1, 2009 ......... 4,388,343
June 2, 2009 ......... 6,148,666
June 3, 2009.......... 8,615,117
June 4, 2009.......... 12,070,951
June 5, 2009.......... 16,913,045
June 6, 2009.......... 23,697,476
June 7, 2009......... 33,203,388

By June 7, 2009, and based on this model, about 10% of the population in the US will be infected with the virus. As any mathematical model, however, this estimation has its own limitations; it assumes that nothing will change in the natural history of the virus and the same conditions for its spreading continue to exist until June 7. The last episode of Swine Flu infection lasted about a month. This means, the virus could infect a total of 200,000 people nationwide by that date (May 23).

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The Ten Commandments

EXODUS 20:1-17 (The Orthodox Study Bible)

"Now the Lord spoke all these words, saying;

I am the Lord your God, who brought you out of the land of Egypt, out of the house of bondage. You shall have no other gods before Me.

You shall not make for yourself an idol or a likeness of anything in heaven above, or in the earth beneath, or in the waters under the earth. You shall not bow down to them, for I, the Lord your God, am a jealous God, recompensing the sins of the fathers on the children to the third and fourth generation of those who hate Me; but showing mercy to thousands, to those who love Me and keep My commandments.

You shall not take the name of the Lord your God in vain, for the Lord will not hold him guiltless who takes His name in vain.

Remember the Sabbath Day, to keep it holy. Six days you shall labor and do all your work, but the seventh day is the Sabbath of the Lord your God. In it you shall do no work: neither you, nor your son, your daughter, your male servant, your female servant, your cattle, nor your stranger who sojourns with you. For in six days the Lord made heaven and earth, the sea, and everything in them, and rested on the seventh day. Therefore, the Lord blessed the Sabbath Day and hallowed it.

Honor your father and mother that it may be well with you, and your days may be long upon the good land the Lord your God is giving you.

You shall not murder.

You shall not commit adultery.

You shall not steal.

You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor.

You shall not covet your neighbor's wife or his house, and neither shall you covet his field, nor his male servant, his female servant, his ox, his donkey, any of his cattle, or whatever belongs to your neighbor."

Bible Dates (The Orthodox Study Bible)

Genesis (Moses) (During Israel's forty years of wandering in the wilderness-the period between crossing the Red Sea and the entrance into Canaan)

Exodus (Moses) (During Israel's forty years of wandering in the wilderness-the period between crossing the Red Sea and the entrance into Canaan)

Leviticus (Moses) (The period during the sojourn at Mt. Sinai)

Numbers (Moses) (Following the exodus from Egypt)

Deuteronomy (Moses) (Near the end of Moses' life and before the entrance into Canaan)

Joshua (Joshua) (600 BC)

The Book of Judges (Samuel) (Three centuries after Israel entered Canaan and covers the period of these centuries)

Ruth (Unknown) (1300 BC)

The First Book of the Kingdoms (Samuel) (1070-970 BC)

The Second Book of the Kingdoms (Samuel) (971-890 BC)

The Third Book of the Kingdoms (Jeremiah) (600-550 BC)

The Fourth Book of the Kingdoms (Jeremiah and Others) (651-609)

The First Book of the Chronicles (Ezra) (450 BC)

The Second Book of the Chronicles (Ezra) ( 450 BC)

The First Book of Ezra (Uncertain) (150 BC)

The Second Book of Ezra (Ezra) (538-410 BC)

The Book of Nehemiah (Nehemiah) (445-425 BC)

The Book of Tobit (Unknown) (400-200 BC)

The Book of Judith (Unknown) (135-105 BC)

The Book of Esther (Mordecai) (450 BC)

The First Book of the Maccabees (Unknown) (104 BC)

The Second Book of the Maccabees (Unknown) (124 BC)

The Book of Psalms (David) (1000-several centuries thereafter)

The Book of Job (Unknown) (1600 BC)

The Proverbs (Solomon) (970-931 BC)

The Book of Ecclesiastes (Solomon) (935 BC)

The Song of Songs (Solomon) (965-960 BC)

The Wisdom of Solomon (Unknown) (30-10 BC)

The Wisdom of Sirach (Jesus of Sirach) (180 BC)

The Book of Hosea (Hosea) (750 BC)

The Book of Amos (Amos) (754 BC)

The Book of Micah (Micah) (Before 720 BC)

The Book of Joel (Joel) (740 BC)

The Book of Obadiah (Obadiah) (587 BC)

The Book of Jonah (Jonah) (784-772 BC)

The Book of Nahum (Nahum) (663-612 BC)

The Book of Habakkuk (Habakkuk) (605 BC)

The Book of Zephaniah (Zephaniah) (627-625 BC)

The Book of Haggai (520 BC)

The Book of Zachariah (Zechariah) (520-480 BC)

The Book of Malachi (Malachi) (500-350 BC)

The Book of Isaiah (Isaiah) (745-680 BC)

The Book of Jeremiah (Jeremiah) (627-582 BC)

The Book of Baruch (Baruch) (After 586 BC)

The Lamentation of Jeremiah (Jeremiah) (October 587-December 587 BC)

The Epistle of Jeremiah (Jeremiah) (597 BC-Exile to Babylon)

The Book of Ezekiel (Ezekiel) (595-572 BC)

The Book of Daniel (Daniel) (605-530 BC)

The Book of Matthew (Matthew) (50-70 AD)

The Book of Mark (Mark) (70 AD)

The Book of Luke (Luke) (70-80 AD)

The Book of John (John) (96 AD)

The Book of Acts (Luke) (75-85 AD)

The Book of Romans (St. Paul) (55-57 AD)

The First Book of the Corinthians (St. Paul) (55 AD)

The Second Book of the Corinthians (St. Paul) (55 AD)

The Book of Galatians (St. Paul) (Uncertain)

The Book of Ephesians (St. Paul) (61-63 AD)

The Book of Philippians (St. Paul) (61-63 AD)

The Book of Colossians (St. Paul) (61-63 AD)

The First Book of Thessalonians (St. Paul) (50-51 AD)

The Second Book of Thessalonians (St. Paul) (51 AD)

The First Book of Timothy (St. Paul) (64-65 AD)

The Second Book of Timothy (St. Paul) (65-67 AD)

The Book of Titus (St. Paul) (63-65 AD)

The Book of Philemon (St. Paul) (61-63 AD)

The Book of Hebrews (St. Paul) (70 AD)

The Book of James (James) (55-60 AD)

The First Book of Peter (Peter) (50-67 AD)

The Second Book of Peter (Peter) (63-67 AD)

The First Book of John (John) (90-95 AD)

The Second Book of John (John) (90-95 AD)

The Third Book of John (John) (90-95 AD)

The Book of Jude (Jude) (60-80 AD)

The Book of the Revelation (John) (81-96 AD)

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Dates

March 31, 2014 (Pass)-59.5

September 30, 2017 (Pass)-62
March 31 (Pass), 2019-63.5
September 30, 2020 (Pass)-65
May 31, 2021 (Pass)-65.67
September 30, 2021 (Pass)-66
November 30, 2021 (Pass)-66.17
May 31, 2022 (Pass)-66.67
September 30, 2022 (Pass)-67
December 31, 2022 (Pass)-67.25
May 31, 2023 (Pass)-67.67
September 30, 2023 (Pass)-68
December 31, 2023 (Pass)-68.25
May 31, 2024 (Pass)-68.67
September 30 (Pass), 2024-69
December 31, 2024-69.25
May 31, 2025-69.67

September 30, 2025-70
December 31, 2025-70.25
May 31, 2026-70.67
September 30, 2026-71
December 31, 2026-71.25
May 31, 2027-71.67
September 30, 2027-72
December 31, 2027-72.25

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