BOTANICAL MEDICINE POSTS (BMP)

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

New Predictions for H1N1 Cases in US

Based on recent data, we revised our models that we published in the past two weeks. Here are the new predictions for the cumulative number of cases in the US: (Actual reported values are in red)

May 20, 2009..........6160...............5710

May 21, 2009...........6544..............5764

May 22, 2009..........6928...............6552

May 23, 2009..........7313................No Report

May 24, 2009..........7697................No Report

May 25, 2009.........8081.................6764

May 26, 2009.........8465.................6764

May 27, 2009.........8850................7927

May 28, 2009.........9234

May 29, 2009.........9618

May 30, 2009.........10002

May 31, 2009.........10386

June 1, 2009..........10771

June 2, 2009...........11155

June 3, 2009...........11539

June 4, 2009...........11923

June 5, 2009...........12308

June 6, 2009...........12692

June 7, 2009...........13076

June 8, 2009...........13460

Thursday, May 14, 2009

H1N1 Predictive Model Modification

We reported on May 8, 2009 blog a predictive equation for H1N1 total cases in the US. We added the new data from the CDC and we modified the model for estimation. Based on this new model, we predict the total cumulative cases to be: (actual reported values are in red)

May 15.......9,312............4,714

May 16.......12,705..........No Report From CDC

May 17.......17,334..........No Report From CDC

May 18.......23,649.........5,123

May 19.......32,267..........5,469

May 20.......44,023

May 21.......60,064

May 22.......81,949

May 23.......111,809

May 24.......152,549

May 25.......208,132

May 26.......283,969

May 27.......387,438

May 28.......528,607

May 29.......721,215

May 30.......984,002

May 31.......1,342,540

June 1........1,831,717

June 2.......2,499,135

June 3.......3,409,738

June 4.......4,652,135

June 5.......6,347,221

June 6.......8,659,940

June 7.......11,815,339

June 8.......16,120,463

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Gene Composition of H1N1 Virus

It has been reported that the gene composition of Swine Flu virus was from human, pig, and bird origins. New findings revealed that the pig components in the gene structure of H1N1 viral matrix were totally unknown to North America. They were only found in Europe and Asia. Their presence in the American Continent remains a puzzle to the scientists, according to reports in the news.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Ovarian Cancer Detection

A new ongoing study from Britain reported early, but promising results on detecting ovarian cancer in postmenopausal women. The proposed and tested method on thousands of patients in this study showed that using an old blood test (developed in 1980s) called CA125 and intra-vaginal ultrasound combination could detect up to 90% of early ovarian cancer in this population. The American Cancer Society is awaiting the end of this study to make its conclusion in recommending this method (CA125 blood test + intra-vaginal ultrasound) to be a routine detection method in post-menopausal women, according to reports in the news.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Estimated Swine Flu Cases in the USA: A Warning

The CDC announced today the new number of Swine Flu cases; it was 1639. If this trend continues as it has been since it began on April 23, 2009, the number of cases could increase exponentially. I present here a mathematical model to estimate the total number of cases in the next few days based on what we know so far about its trend. The model is shown in the figure on the right. Based on this model, the estimated total number of cases on the following days is given below. The actual reported cases will be given in red for comparison (CDC reporting figures):
May 9, 2009 ........... 1,876.................2,254
May 10, 2009 ......... 2,629..................2,532
May 11, 2009 ......... 3,683..................2,600
May 12, 2009.......... 5,161...................3,009
May 13, 2009.......... 7,231...................3,352
May 14, 2009.......... 10,131.................4,298
May 15, 2009.......... 14,195
May 16, 2009.......... 19,889
May 17, 2009.......... 27,867
May 18, 2009.......... 39,046
May 19, 2009.......... 54,709
May 20, 2009......... 76,654
May 21, 2009.......... 107,403
May 22, 2009......... 150,487
May 23, 2009......... 210,852
May 24, 2009......... 295,432
May 25, 2009......... 413,941
May 26, 2009......... 579,988
May 27, 2009......... 812,642
May 28, 2009......... 1,138,622
May 29, 2009......... 1,595,364
May 30, 2009......... 2,235,322
Nay 31, 2009 ......... 3,131,990
June 1, 2009 ......... 4,388,343
June 2, 2009 ......... 6,148,666
June 3, 2009.......... 8,615,117
June 4, 2009.......... 12,070,951
June 5, 2009.......... 16,913,045
June 6, 2009.......... 23,697,476
June 7, 2009......... 33,203,388

By June 7, 2009, and based on this model, about 10% of the population in the US will be infected with the virus. As any mathematical model, however, this estimation has its own limitations; it assumes that nothing will change in the natural history of the virus and the same conditions for its spreading continue to exist until June 7. The last episode of Swine Flu infection lasted about a month. This means, the virus could infect a total of 200,000 people nationwide by that date (May 23).

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Swine Flu Cases are on the Increase in the US

The number of cases has risen from a mere seven to 896 as of May 7, 2009 (today) at 11:00 AM (Eastern), according to the CDC. The US health agency also states that the figure might be higher than 896 due to slow reports arriving at the CDC.

H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) Cases in USA

As of 11:00 A.M (Eastern time), the CDC has reported a total of 896 cases, with two death cases occurring in Texas. The cases were spread over 41 states (see chart; based on reported incidents by the CDC).

The Number of Swine Flu Cases Has Reached A New High

It is today over 900 documented cases in the US--over one-hundred folds increase since its start with eight cases. Only 10% of those infected in the US had traveled to Mexico, all others caught the viral infection locally. If this becomes pandemic, one-third of the world's population would be carrying H1N1 Flu virus. Let's hope not!

Oops..I Forgot

Happy Belated Cinco de Mayo

Today's Feelings

My Real Economical Depression

Who owns the most acrage in the United States?

Of course the government. However, the largest private owner of land in the United States is Ted Turner, the founder of CNN. He owns 10 million acres of land all over the US.

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The Ten Commandments

EXODUS 20:1-17 (The Orthodox Study Bible)

"Now the Lord spoke all these words, saying;

I am the Lord your God, who brought you out of the land of Egypt, out of the house of bondage. You shall have no other gods before Me.

You shall not make for yourself an idol or a likeness of anything in heaven above, or in the earth beneath, or in the waters under the earth. You shall not bow down to them, for I, the Lord your God, am a jealous God, recompensing the sins of the fathers on the children to the third and fourth generation of those who hate Me; but showing mercy to thousands, to those who love Me and keep My commandments.

You shall not take the name of the Lord your God in vain, for the Lord will not hold him guiltless who takes His name in vain.

Remember the Sabbath Day, to keep it holy. Six days you shall labor and do all your work, but the seventh day is the Sabbath of the Lord your God. In it you shall do no work: neither you, nor your son, your daughter, your male servant, your female servant, your cattle, nor your stranger who sojourns with you. For in six days the Lord made heaven and earth, the sea, and everything in them, and rested on the seventh day. Therefore, the Lord blessed the Sabbath Day and hallowed it.

Honor your father and mother that it may be well with you, and your days may be long upon the good land the Lord your God is giving you.

You shall not murder.

You shall not commit adultery.

You shall not steal.

You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor.

You shall not covet your neighbor's wife or his house, and neither shall you covet his field, nor his male servant, his female servant, his ox, his donkey, any of his cattle, or whatever belongs to your neighbor."

Bible Dates (The Orthodox Study Bible)

Genesis (Moses) (During Israel's forty years of wandering in the wilderness-the period between crossing the Red Sea and the entrance into Canaan)

Exodus (Moses) (During Israel's forty years of wandering in the wilderness-the period between crossing the Red Sea and the entrance into Canaan)

Leviticus (Moses) (The period during the sojourn at Mt. Sinai)

Numbers (Moses) (Following the exodus from Egypt)

Deuteronomy (Moses) (Near the end of Moses' life and before the entrance into Canaan)

Joshua (Joshua) (600 BC)

The Book of Judges (Samuel) (Three centuries after Israel entered Canaan and covers the period of these centuries)

Ruth (Unknown) (1300 BC)

The First Book of the Kingdoms (Samuel) (1070-970 BC)

The Second Book of the Kingdoms (Samuel) (971-890 BC)

The Third Book of the Kingdoms (Jeremiah) (600-550 BC)

The Fourth Book of the Kingdoms (Jeremiah and Others) (651-609)

The First Book of the Chronicles (Ezra) (450 BC)

The Second Book of the Chronicles (Ezra) ( 450 BC)

The First Book of Ezra (Uncertain) (150 BC)

The Second Book of Ezra (Ezra) (538-410 BC)

The Book of Nehemiah (Nehemiah) (445-425 BC)

The Book of Tobit (Unknown) (400-200 BC)

The Book of Judith (Unknown) (135-105 BC)

The Book of Esther (Mordecai) (450 BC)

The First Book of the Maccabees (Unknown) (104 BC)

The Second Book of the Maccabees (Unknown) (124 BC)

The Book of Psalms (David) (1000-several centuries thereafter)

The Book of Job (Unknown) (1600 BC)

The Proverbs (Solomon) (970-931 BC)

The Book of Ecclesiastes (Solomon) (935 BC)

The Song of Songs (Solomon) (965-960 BC)

The Wisdom of Solomon (Unknown) (30-10 BC)

The Wisdom of Sirach (Jesus of Sirach) (180 BC)

The Book of Hosea (Hosea) (750 BC)

The Book of Amos (Amos) (754 BC)

The Book of Micah (Micah) (Before 720 BC)

The Book of Joel (Joel) (740 BC)

The Book of Obadiah (Obadiah) (587 BC)

The Book of Jonah (Jonah) (784-772 BC)

The Book of Nahum (Nahum) (663-612 BC)

The Book of Habakkuk (Habakkuk) (605 BC)

The Book of Zephaniah (Zephaniah) (627-625 BC)

The Book of Haggai (520 BC)

The Book of Zachariah (Zechariah) (520-480 BC)

The Book of Malachi (Malachi) (500-350 BC)

The Book of Isaiah (Isaiah) (745-680 BC)

The Book of Jeremiah (Jeremiah) (627-582 BC)

The Book of Baruch (Baruch) (After 586 BC)

The Lamentation of Jeremiah (Jeremiah) (October 587-December 587 BC)

The Epistle of Jeremiah (Jeremiah) (597 BC-Exile to Babylon)

The Book of Ezekiel (Ezekiel) (595-572 BC)

The Book of Daniel (Daniel) (605-530 BC)

The Book of Matthew (Matthew) (50-70 AD)

The Book of Mark (Mark) (70 AD)

The Book of Luke (Luke) (70-80 AD)

The Book of John (John) (96 AD)

The Book of Acts (Luke) (75-85 AD)

The Book of Romans (St. Paul) (55-57 AD)

The First Book of the Corinthians (St. Paul) (55 AD)

The Second Book of the Corinthians (St. Paul) (55 AD)

The Book of Galatians (St. Paul) (Uncertain)

The Book of Ephesians (St. Paul) (61-63 AD)

The Book of Philippians (St. Paul) (61-63 AD)

The Book of Colossians (St. Paul) (61-63 AD)

The First Book of Thessalonians (St. Paul) (50-51 AD)

The Second Book of Thessalonians (St. Paul) (51 AD)

The First Book of Timothy (St. Paul) (64-65 AD)

The Second Book of Timothy (St. Paul) (65-67 AD)

The Book of Titus (St. Paul) (63-65 AD)

The Book of Philemon (St. Paul) (61-63 AD)

The Book of Hebrews (St. Paul) (70 AD)

The Book of James (James) (55-60 AD)

The First Book of Peter (Peter) (50-67 AD)

The Second Book of Peter (Peter) (63-67 AD)

The First Book of John (John) (90-95 AD)

The Second Book of John (John) (90-95 AD)

The Third Book of John (John) (90-95 AD)

The Book of Jude (Jude) (60-80 AD)

The Book of the Revelation (John) (81-96 AD)

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Dates

March 31, 2014 (Pass)-59.5

September 30, 2017 (Pass)-62
March 31 (Pass), 2019-63.5
September 30, 2020 (Pass)-65
May 31, 2021 (Pass)-65.67
September 30, 2021 (Pass)-66
November 30, 2021 (Pass)-66.17
May 31, 2022 (Pass)-66.67
September 30, 2022 (Pass)-67
December 31, 2022 (Pass)-67.25
May 31, 2023 (Pass)-67.67
September 30, 2023 (Pass)-68
December 31, 2023 (Pass)-68.25
May 31, 2024 (Pass)-68.67
September 30 (Pass), 2024-69
December 31, 2024-69.25
May 31, 2025-69.67

September 30, 2025-70
December 31, 2025-70.25
May 31, 2026-70.67
September 30, 2026-71
December 31, 2026-71.25
May 31, 2027-71.67
September 30, 2027-72
December 31, 2027-72.25

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